Bitcoin whale balances turn negative as demand wanes

On Thursday, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported a sharp slowdown in Bitcoin accumulation among large private holders, with annual balance growth for whale accounts holding 1,000–10,000 BTC turning negative in the fastest contraction recorded this year.

The firm said monthly balance growth across whale and dolphin cohorts has been flat since February, marking a move from accumulation toward mild distribution. Dolphin accounts, defined by CryptoQuant as holders of 100–1,000 BTC and dominated by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries, remain positive on an annual basis but have seen growth sharply decelerate.

CryptoQuant noted dolphin balances have posted successive lower highs since September 2025. Monthly balance growth across both whales and dolphins is now near zero, a change from previous periods of steady accumulation.

The firm also reported that long-term holders hold 15.8 million BTC. CryptoQuant described that configuration as reflecting a lack of new entrants adding fresh demand to the market.

Tim Sun, a researcher at HashKey Group, mapped on-chain metrics and highlighted that after Bitcoin’s pullback from its October peak, the share of supply in unrealized loss at one point approached 50%, the highest level since the trough of the 2022 bear market. “If mapped against the on-chain realized price, the absolute bottom territory could be around $40,000 to $45,000,” he said, then added he saw a more realistic bottom range at $55,000 to $60,000 if geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran do not escalate and the Federal Reserve refrains from raising rates.

An independent analyst using the name Darkfost described the market as range-bound, with investor sentiment swinging between euphoria near the top of the range and pessimism near the bottom. At current prices around $73,700, roughly 40% of circulating BTC supply is held at a loss, CryptoQuant and market observers reported.

CryptoQuant and the analysts noted that a durable market bottom and any sustained recovery will be contingent on easing interest rate pressures and a more favorable liquidity environment.