Bitcoin lows now unlikely as long-term holders hold 15M BTC

Bitcoin’s supply held by long-term holders rose above 15.04 million coins, equal to 71.6% of circulating BTC, while the weekly relative strength index (RSI) recently retested the 50 level, analysts report. The long-term holder figure reached that level for the first time since Oct. 1, 2025.

Crypto analyst Sykodelic noted the weekly RSI retest occurred about 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI fell into oversold territory for only the fourth time on record. In a post, Sykodelic wrote that the probability of Bitcoin making a fresh low has “become extremely slim” following the RSI recovery. The analyst pointed to 2022 as an exception, when the RSI did not retest 50 and the market later registered new lows after the FTX collapse.

Onchain metrics tracking addresses that have held BTC for at least one year show the cohort returning to accumulation levels seen before prior major rallies. CryptoZeno observed that the one-year-plus holder metric moved back into a historical accumulation zone that preceded upside cycles in 2013, 2016, 2019 and late 2022. He added that previous cycle highs in 2017 and 2021 tended to form when distribution among long-term holders accelerated, while current readings indicate steadier accumulation and a smaller pool of readily available coins.

Analysts say the rise in long-term holder supply reduced the share of coins in shorter-term wallets and on exchanges. That shift lowered the proportion of circulating BTC that could be sold immediately, according to market observers.

Miners show signs of cautious behavior. Crypto analyst Pelin Ay highlighted Binance Pool miner reserves falling from 41,987 BTC in May to 41,915 BTC most recently and described the decline as evidence of ongoing operational selling. “Since Binance Pool represents a major share of the global hash rate, its behavior often reflects overall miner psychology before the broader market reacts. Falling reserves usually indicate that operational selling pressure is still continuing,” Ay wrote. She also noted that the Puell Multiple remained below 1, indicating miner revenue is subdued relative to the prior year, and that the Miner Position Index sat below levels typically associated with panic selling; she described the pattern as a “wait phase” often seen near market bottoms.

The weekly RSI is a momentum indicator traders use to judge whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a weekly timeframe; a return above 50 after an oversold reading has historically preceded multi-month rallies. The long-term holder metric measures the share of circulating coins that have not moved for at least a year and is used as a proxy for investor conviction and illiquidity. The Puell Multiple compares daily miner revenue to a 365-day moving average to assess miner profitability; values below 1 indicate revenue is weak relative to the prior year.

Analysts caution that historical patterns are not guarantees. They point to 2022, when an external event coincided with atypical RSI behavior and further price declines, as an example of how market outcomes can change following major shocks. Market participants continue to monitor onchain flows, miner reserves and weekly momentum for signals on future direction.