Armstrong: $400,000 Bitcoin Target ‘Reasonable’ by 2030

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said a $400,000 Bitcoin price by 2030 remains reasonable after the cryptocurrency fell 5.4% over the past seven days and was trading near $76,930, roughly 39% below an October 2025 peak above $126,000.

Armstrong described Bitcoin’s behavior in four-year cycles of build, euphoria, decline and recovery. He noted most down periods last about a year and that the recent decline has passed that mark. Armstrong pointed to two upcoming events traders will watch: a procedural Senate vote on the CLARITY Act scheduled for Sept. 15 and the next Bitcoin halving, which he said is about 18 to 19 months away. “Most of the down periods last about a year, and we have actually just come across the 1-year mark for this down period,” Armstrong told reporters. “I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin.”

Analyst Jesse Myers reviewed historical post-halving returns and cited large gains after prior halvings: about 100x after 2012, 30x after 2016 and 8x after 2020. Myers wrote that if the same pattern repeats, Bitcoin could rise roughly fourfold from a $58,000 low to about $232,000 by the April 2028 halving and then double again into 2029, reaching a level above Armstrong’s $400,000 estimate.

Market indicators show a mixed picture. The 90-day cumulative volume delta for spot markets is neutral, with futures trading accounting for much of the recent price rebound. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded roughly $986.9 million in net inflows in the week ended Sept. 4 and about $3.8 billion over a three-week stretch. That inflow run cooled in the current week, showing $166.9 million in net outflows so far.

Reaching $400,000 from the current price near $76,930 would require about a 420% increase. Armstrong and other market participants have highlighted the potential for increased demand ahead of the halving and from institutional investors if past cycles repeat. Armstrong framed his outlook around the timing of cycles rather than short-term price charts, saying he believes the recent cycle’s bottom is behind the market.