Polymarket Sees 73% Chance Strait of Hormuz Normal by May 31

Traders on the Polymarket prediction market set a 73% probability that commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31, 2026. Odds spiked to 82% on Friday after an official announcement that the waterway was open, then eased back to 73%.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on X: “The passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Polymarket also shows a roughly 40% chance of normal traffic by April 30, 2026. Polymarket is a real-money prediction market that aggregates traders’ bets into a single probability, reflecting how participants price the likelihood of future events.

The market reaction followed several days of shifting reports about the strait’s status and the ceasefire announced in April. Traders adjusted probabilities as they assessed the ceasefire’s durability and the chance of renewed disruptions.

Cryptocurrency and energy markets moved with the prediction market. Bitcoin briefly touched about $78,000 before pulling back to approximately $77,358 at the time of publication. Energy traders and analysts monitored how a stable Strait of Hormuz would affect crude supply and freight costs.

Cryptocurrency analyst Nic Puckrin described the ceasefire as “fragile” and warned unresolved issues could keep markets on edge for months, potentially delaying central bank interest-rate cuts until the third quarter of 2026 at the earliest. He added that a sustained drop in oil prices toward $80 and softer economic data would be among the conditions for Bitcoin to reach $90,000.

President Donald Trump stated that a U.S. naval blockade on Iran would “remain in full force and effect” until the “transaction with Iran is 100% complete.”

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global oil and tanker traffic. Prediction markets such as Polymarket offer a near-real-time gauge of trader expectations about events that can affect shipping, commodity flows and prices.