Grayscale: Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Ahead of Cycle Low

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, wrote in a Wednesday report that Bitcoin may already have bottomed ahead of its traditional four-year cycle. He linked the change to the asset’s growing sensitivity to macroeconomic forces and Federal Reserve policy.

Pandl wrote macro factors such as Fed interest rate policy are “in the driver’s seat” for Bitcoin prices and that the market could “bottom when these macro factors turn around.” He added, “if the Fed forgoes rate hikes and economic growth holds up well, Bitcoin’s price may already have bottomed.”

The Federal Reserve will announce its next interest rate decision on July 29. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed market pricing at roughly a 66% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged for that meeting, down from about 88% a week earlier.

Pandl noted that earlier Bitcoin bear markets coincided with slower economic growth and rising real interest rates, linking price cycles to broader macro trends rather than only on‑chain events.

The report cited other market indicators. A crypto brokerage analysis showed more than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was held at a loss earlier in July, a pattern that has appeared before past market lows. Swan Bitcoin’s CEO Cory Klippsten highlighted record long-term holdings of roughly 14.7 million Bitcoin as a factor that could reduce selling pressure from conventional holders.

Pandl also flagged regulatory uncertainty as a constraint on recovery. The report said that if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, corporate and treasury holders may continue to “deleverage,” which could cause prices to “fall moderately further.” Analysts’ measures, such as multiples to net asset value, were cited as tools some use to time cycle lows.

Not all market participants share the view of an early bottom. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of a mining pool, projected a cycle low between October and December 2026 based on his assessment of institutional valuation measures and their timing relationships with price.

Traders and institutional investors will watch the July 29 Fed decision and developments in U.S. regulation for more signals on near-term price direction.