Bitcoin hits $80,500; $81,500 close needed to hold $80K

Bitcoin climbed to $80,500 on Monday, a three-month high, testing the $80,000 area for the first time since Jan. 31.

The price sits just below the short-term holders’ average cost basis of $81,486, calculated from coins moved over the last 155 days. A daily close above $81,500 would place short-term holders into profit and set $80,000 as support.

On-chain indicators show the spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) rose to about 1.097 from 0.99, indicating coins are being spent at a profit, led by long-term holders. Long-term holders hold roughly 27% unrealized gains and have not been distributing aggressively. Short-term holder losses have narrowed to about -2.17%.

Exchange flow data show about 97.2% of recent deposits to exchanges came from addresses defined as short-term holders, with wallets holding between 1 and 1,000 BTC accounting for roughly 58% of those inflows. Total BTC deposited to exchanges peaked at 35,649 BTC on April 24 and fell to 3,895 BTC by May 3.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked net inflows of 8,512 BTC over several days, with spikes on April 27 and April 30, and noted the price absorbed that supply without a sharp drop. Exchange flows cooled to near-neutral levels between May 1 and May 3, with net flows around 269 BTC.

Exchange reserves increased by about 5,773 BTC week over week to roughly 2,685,541 BTC before easing slightly after April 30. Adler Jr. noted that coins on exchanges are not being sold aggressively at present, creating a supply overhang that could become selling pressure if demand weakens.

Technical levels around $79,600 and $84,000 are being watched as liquidity and supply zones. Trader Ardi highlighted that holding $79,600 would keep the rally targeting the next supply zone near $84,000. A breakdown below $80,000 would shift focus toward a new-money cost basis near $76,500 and increase the likelihood of a failed breakout.