Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 60% as Senate deadline looms

Galaxy Digital cut its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 60% in a Friday research note, saying the Senate needs to act before a late‑July recess and that unresolved ethics and illicit‑finance provisions could erode support.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, noted the firm briefly raised its odds to 75% on May 22 but is now reducing the estimate to 60%. He wrote that the bill must clear the Senate before a month‑long August recess that begins in late July and added, “after that, the window effectively closes.” Thorn outlined remaining steps: floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s text and then House action on any changes.

The CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees in different forms, and the House approved its version in 2023. The measure still requires at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to proceed without extended debate. Thorn wrote that Majority Leader John Thune would need to schedule floor time “at some point in July” for the procedural steps to fit before the recess.

Galaxy cited a tightening congressional calendar ahead of the midterm elections and a lack of visible progress in negotiations as reasons for lowering its odds. The firm identified unresolved language on ethics rules and illicit‑finance measures as sticking points that could reduce support on the floor.

Other analysts have also cut their near‑term estimates. JPMorgan placed the probability below 50% this week. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, described his view as “less optimistic” and reported that sources in Washington put the odds of passage this year between about 5% and 30%.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets and a principal backer of the bill, urged colleagues to move the measure to the floor. She posted on social media: “The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line.” Lummis told reporters negotiators are still working through ethics and illicit‑finance language that could affect support. 160 former security intelligence officials also Senate leaders to advance the CLARITY Act.

Galaxy said it would raise its probability if Senate leaders committed to take the bill up in July and negotiators finalized language to secure additional votes. Without that commitment and clear resolution of contentious provisions, the firm expects the chances of Senate passage this year to fall further.

The CLARITY Act aims to assign specific oversight roles for digital assets to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Senate has produced separate texts in the Agriculture and Banking committees; the House approved its version last year. With the midterm campaign season approaching, major legislation has historically seen limited floor movement in the months before elections.