Bitcoin dormant-coin share falls as long-term holders retreat

Bitcoin holders who have kept their coins for at least 18 months have reduced their onchain activity, while the group’s share of Bitcoin’s realized cap has declined from 26.98% to 26.59%. CryptoQuant’s data shows a similar pattern preceded strong rallies in previous market cycles.

The cohort’s share of realized cap reached 26.98% on Sept. 16, its highest level since mid-November 2024. Realized cap values each Bitcoin at the price when it last moved onchain. UTXO age bands measure how long coins have remained dormant.

CryptoQuant’s analysis found that the share of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months has historically risen before starting to decline ahead of strong rallies. “The pattern has always been the same: when the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months across the entire network rises and then starts to decline, a strong rally follows,” the analytics firm wrote in a blog post.

The recent decline in the cohort’s share remains limited. CryptoQuant’s data shows that long-term holders are spending fewer coins, while the reversal in UTXO data remains modest. “The market has now shifted into a bullish cycle, but we still appear to be in the early stages of the cycle,” the firm wrote.

Among long-term holder groups, only coins held for 18 months to two years are in aggregate loss. Their cost basis is $93,193. Older groups remain in aggregate profit. CryptoQuant’s data also indicates that 2026 is the first Bitcoin bear market in which the price has stayed above the cost basis of coins held for two to three years.

Bitcoin’s maximum decline from its latest all-time high of $126,200 has reached 53%, according to a report from Galaxy Digital. The report described the decline as the shallowest from an all-time high recorded during a Bitcoin bear market.

Coins that have remained unmoved for at least five years are also generating less onchain volume. The group recorded monthly volume of about 67,000 BTC in 2024 and 47,000 BTC in 2025. Its average monthly volume in 2026 has fallen to about 34,000 BTC, or roughly half the 2024 level.

Galaxy Digital reported that the group moved a total of 1.11 million BTC since October 2024. Much of that supply was absorbed by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin-focused digital-asset treasury companies. The volume of coins entering the market from holders with at least five years of dormancy has declined from the levels recorded in the previous two years.