Bernstein: Retail chases AI, Bitcoin ‘boring’; $150K target

In a research note published Monday, Bernstein’s Global Digital Assets team wrote that retail investors have directed capital into AI-related equities, leaving Bitcoin quieter after a roughly 27% year-to-date decline in 2026. The firm reiterated a $150,000 price target for year-end.

The note reported net inflows from exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury buyers at about $12 billion year-to-date, compared with roughly $60 billion for all of 2025, an 80% decline. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.6 billion from a total asset base near $75 billion.

Price data in the note showed Bitcoin trading just above $63,000 at publication, down roughly 27% so far in 2026 and about 50% below its October peak.

Bernstein described lower retail activity as a shift toward a holder base with a larger share of institutional and corporate participants, including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and corporate treasuries. The analysts wrote that these buyers now account for a greater portion of Bitcoin holders.

The note cited Strategy, a software company that raised $7.5 billion this year through a preferred stock instrument labeled STRC and used the proceeds to purchase about 100,000 Bitcoin. Strategy now holds more than 845,000 BTC, which Bernstein estimated at roughly $53.6 billion.

Bernstein also noted activity at the mining and infrastructure level. The firm named IREN and Cipher Digital as examples of mining companies that have shifted capital into building AI data centers and reported gains as they reposition operations away from pure mining.

The research placed the current market in context by reporting total crypto market capitalization near $2.25 trillion and noting that equities, particularly AI-related stocks, have been the dominant theme for many investors this year.

The note read: “We believe this maturation phase of Bitcoin is less appreciated, and the criticism has largely come from its lack of retail momentum — which may not be a bad thing considering retail has crowded into AI. Bitcoin being boring this cycle should not be held against it, and does not take away from the long-term ‘store of value’ thesis, in our view.”

Bernstein reiterated that a $150,000 year-end target would represent a new all-time high for Bitcoin.