10x Research: $1M Bitcoin by 2030 is mathematically impossible

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argued that Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin by 2030 is mathematically impossible without massive new capital inflows.

Thielen based his view on historical capital flows into the market. He calculated that roughly $1 trillion of net inflows helped lift Bitcoin’s market capitalization to about $1 trillion in past cycles. To reach $1 million per coin from current levels, he estimates the market would need roughly 15 times that amount — about $15 trillion in additional capital.

At the time of his remarks, Bitcoin’s market capitalization was near $1.28 trillion and the price was about $63,868. Thielen noted that $15 trillion is roughly equivalent to 25% of the U.S. stock market’s total value moving into Bitcoin within four years.

He pointed out that transfers on that scale have not occurred in Bitcoin’s history and would be difficult to achieve without an extreme financial event. “I don’t want to say never, but… a million is really a high number,” he commented, adding that reaching it would likely require “a major credit event, implosion of everything.”

Thielen highlighted behavioural limits on demand as prices rise. Many retail buyers prefer to own a whole bitcoin rather than fractions, which can reduce buying momentum as the per-coin price climbs. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin,” he observed.

He cautioned against assuming past cycle patterns will repeat quickly at higher market caps, noting that larger market sizes require much larger capital inflows to move prices materially. Thielen noted that a return to $100,000 per coin would itself represent a significant recovery.

Several prominent executives and investors have publicly predicted a $1 million price by 2030. Thielen argued such forecasts draw attention but can create optimistic expectations among retail investors.

Thielen described his outlook as cautious rather than bearish, emphasizing the numerical gap between past inflows and the capital that would be required to reach $1 million per coin within four years.