10 crypto forecasts for 2026: winners and laggards

Swiss ETP issuer 21Shares published a midyear review on June 24 comparing the 10 crypto forecasts it set in January with market data through May 31 and June 8. The report identifies areas moving ahead of schedule and others falling short of targets.

The review notes that prediction markets and Ethereum Layer 2 scaling are running ahead of expectations, while exchange-traded products, stablecoins, decentralized finance and tokenized real-world assets are behind the firm’s original forecasts.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle break forecast did not occur. Bitcoin reached a peak near $126,000 in October 2025 and then retraced about 50%, trading above a $54,000 aggregate cost basis after the correction.

Global crypto ETP assets fell to roughly $140 billion by May, well below the $400 billion year-end target. Bitcoin-focused ETPs accounted for about $110 billion of that total. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs held more than 1.25 million BTC while recording roughly $3 billion in year-to-date net outflows through May.

Stablecoin supply reached about $320 billion by midyear, short of the $1 trillion goal. The report highlights regulatory developments, citing the GENIUS Act in the U.S. and full enforcement of MiCA in the EU, and notes that non-dollar stablecoins exceeded $2 billion in circulation.

Decentralized finance underperformed relative to the firm’s forecast. Total value locked in DeFi stood near $140 billion, compared with a $300 billion target. The sector experienced over $840 million in exploit losses across more than 50 incidents. The KelpDAO exploit involved nearly $300 million and triggered more than $13 billion in on-chain outflows within two days, according to the review.

Corporate crypto treasuries and public company holdings showed mixed results. About 200 public companies held close to 1.28 million BTC, but corporate crypto treasuries were valued at roughly $100 billion versus the $250 billion-plus the report anticipated. The document identifies Strategy as holding 847,363 BTC at an average cost of $75,653.

Prediction markets recorded $57.5 billion in volume through May, more than ten times the same period a year earlier, putting the sector on pace toward the $100 billion yearly volume forecast. The review identified events such as the FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm elections as potential catalysts for additional activity in the second half of the year.

On-chain AI adoption trailed infrastructure development. The ERC-8004 standard went live in January, and the x402 protocol gained support from Cloudflare, Stripe, AWS, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft and Visa, but on-chain AI agent volumes remained modest, measured in the tens of millions.

Ethereum scaling showed faster progress. The five largest Layer 2 networks captured close to 90% of daily active users, and Base and Arbitrum together controlled roughly 70% of assets across Layer 2s.

Regulated token sales and tokenized assets returned but at smaller scale than forecast. Coinbase acquired Echo for $375 million. Monad held a $216 million raise from 86,000 buyers, and MegaETH reported $1.39 billion in commitments for a $50 million round. Public-chain tokenized real-world assets totaled about $31 billion in early June, led by tokenized U.S. Treasuries near $15 billion and commodities near $5 billion. Assets represented on institutional networks were closer to $350 billion.

The review states: “While the overall direction we outlined for 2026 remains largely on track, some predictions are ahead of schedule and others are lagging.” The document records that standards, custody and scaling infrastructure have advanced faster than capital flows and broad retail and institutional adoption in several sectors.