XRP falls as Senate shelves Clarity Act ahead of Fed decision

XRP fell to roughly $1.06 on Monday, sliding about 8% over the past week after the U.S. Senate removed the Clarity Act from the floor to prioritize a Russia sanctions package and federal nominations. The chamber’s August recess begins around August 7, leaving a narrow window for a floor vote this year; if the bill does not reach the floor before the break, backers expect the next realistic opportunity could be in 2027.

The Clarity Act would place XRP’s classification as a commodity into federal law, a change that institutional custodians, banks and potential ETF issuers have cited as a prerequisite for some product plans. One global bank has a conditional $8 target for XRP that depends on full Senate passage of the Clarity Act combined with $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows.

Monetary policy developments added near-term pressure. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the July meeting. Market pricing recently placed the odds of an additional hike near 38%, the highest probability this cycle. Even a pause with a hawkish tone can unsettle risk assets; Bitcoin was trading around $63,400–$64,000, well below June peaks near $80,000, and many alternative tokens were weaker.

On Binance, XRP traded near $1.0641 with an approximate market capitalization of $65 billion and a 24‑hour range from $1.0450 to $1.0679. The token peaked close to $3.40 in mid‑2025 and has moved in a descending channel since, recording a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The 50‑day exponential moving average sits below the 200‑day average, a configuration traders refer to as a death cross. The Relative Strength Index is about 40.9, in bearish territory but not at extreme oversold levels. The Average Directional Index is near 11.2, indicating a weak or directionless trend. Momentum indicators including the Squeeze are negative and a composite technical score registers deeply bearish.

Shorter timeframes show some directional indicators rotating from negative toward positive readings, and oversold conditions leave open the possibility of a temporary rebound. Key Fibonacci support for the current leg runs from $1.1646 down to $1.0450; below that, the next supports are near $1.0125 and $0.9711.

Market participants say two events will likely determine XRP’s immediate path. A dovish Fed statement or signals of later easing could allow XRP to test resistance around $1.10–$1.12. A hawkish tone or a visible dissent on the rate decision could open room for further declines toward $1.01 and $0.97. Traders and investors will monitor the legislative calendar and the Fed’s guidance for developments that could affect XRP’s price and institutional activity.