VanEck: Negative Funding, Hash-Rate Recovery Lift Bitcoin

VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush reported that Bitcoin’s funding rate dropped to -1.8%, the lowest level since 2023, as the cryptocurrency briefly topped $79,000 this week. The firm’s report notes the 30-day moving average of the network’s hash rate has recovered after three recent decline episodes.

The funding rate measures payments between traders on derivatives markets; a negative reading means short positions are paying long positions. VanEck’s calculations show average 30-day returns of 11.5% during periods of negative funding since 2020, compared with a 4.5% average overall. The analysts found that when funding fell below -5%, average returns rose to 19.4% over 30 days and 70% over 180 days.

VanEck put the current 30-day hash rate at 985.5 exahashes per second (EH/s), about 7.5% below the all-time high of 1,065.7 EH/s recorded in late November. The network experienced three sustained decline episodes over the past five months; the most recent ended April 15 after 16 days, with a peak decline of 6.7%. VanEck tracked seven such drawdowns and reported that six were followed by higher Bitcoin prices 90 days later, with a median gain of 37.7%.

On-chain activity remained substantial by several measures. VanEck reported daily transfer volume of $48.5 billion, placing activity in the 81st historical percentile, though that volume was about 5% lower month over month as market positioning and volatility eased. Institutional flows also shifted: after five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling roughly $4 billion from Jan. 24 through Feb. 21, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded net positive flows in six of the seven weeks ending April 11.

Price action reflected the on-chain data during the week. Bitcoin rose above $79,000 on Wednesday before moving toward $77,397, a decline of roughly 0.8% on the day at the time of VanEck’s update. VanEck’s report cited data indicating Bitcoin was up more than 11% over the prior 30 days.

Separately, Project Eleven awarded its 1 Bitcoin “Q-Day Prize” to Italian researcher Giancarlo Lelli for using a publicly accessible quantum computer to break a simplified 15-bit elliptic curve cryptography key with a variant of Shor’s algorithm. Project Eleven described the test as the largest public quantum attack on elliptic curve cryptography to date; the key size used in the demonstration is far smaller than those securing real cryptocurrency wallets.

The VanEck report provides historical data and short-term metrics but does not make price forecasts. Traders and asset managers can use the firm’s figures on funding, hash rate and flows when assessing market conditions.