Traders hedge Bitcoin downside amid near-term volatility

Anchorage Digital research shows Bitcoin options traders have been buying downside protection across several markets in 2026. The study, authored by Anchorage head of research David Lawant, highlights elevated put skew on Deribit and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options and frequent short-term volatility spikes.

The analysis reviewed options flows on Deribit, IBIT and MicroStrategy (MSTR) to capture crypto-native, institutional and retail positioning. Anchorage reported defensive positioning in IBIT options at the 82nd percentile of its history and in Deribit options at the 84th percentile of the exchange’s five-year history. Traders paid premiums for put contracts, which provide protection against price declines, rather than for bets on higher Bitcoin prices.

A notable pattern in 2026 was an inversion of short- and medium-term volatility expectations. For nearly half the year, the market priced higher implied volatility over the next week than over the next month. Anchorage described that inversion as unusual and typically short-lived and attributed it to a run of macroeconomic, geopolitical and crypto-specific events that kept attention on near-term risks.

Anchorage also examined options tied to MicroStrategy. The company holds 847,363 BTC. MicroStrategy’s perpetual preferred shares, STRC, fell to $82.53 on June 22, about 17% below the $100 par value, and later traded near $77, roughly 23% below par. MicroStrategy’s common shares (MSTR) were down about 78% over the past year and traded around $87 at the time of the report.

Despite recent equity weakness, Anchorage found MicroStrategy’s options market had not reached the stress levels seen in prior market corrections. Put skew on MSTR remained elevated but below thresholds Anchorage associates with forced deleveraging. Thirty-day risk reversals in MSTR options did not match the magnitudes observed during earlier sell-offs.

In the report, Lawant wrote: “I’m watching for one-month implied volatility to once again exceed one-week implied volatility.” The report presented that change as a metric to monitor in assessing shifts in short-term positioning.

Anchorage summed the Deribit, IBIT and MicroStrategy option data as showing traders focused on managing near-term exposures rather than taking large directional bets on Bitcoin. The firm’s findings noted caution across investor types while stopping short of classifying current option market metrics as indicative of systemic stress.