Traders Eye $78K-$84K Bitcoin Range Ahead of CLARITY Vote

Bitcoin traders focused on a $78,000–$84,000 range on Thursday as the Senate Banking Committee held a markup vote on the CLARITY Act. Prediction markets assigned roughly a 67% chance the bill becomes law in 2026.

The CLARITY Act would set rules for how U.S. regulators oversee cryptocurrencies and stablecoins and could classify Bitcoin as a digital commodity overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Supporters say the bill would reduce legal uncertainty for market participants.

Polymarket placed the probability of the act becoming law in 2026 at about 67%. A rival exchange, Kalshi, priced the odds at roughly 62% before August 2026 and 67% by Dec. 31, 2026.

Bitcoin pushed back toward the $80,000 level on Thursday. Traders noted short-term momentum depends on support between $78,000 and $79,000; holding that zone would be required for bulls to test $84,000 and higher. Resistance near $82,000 aligns with the 200-day moving average.

Chart analyst Rekt Capital wrote that a weekly close above the 21-week exponential moving average is needed to confirm it as retested support, and that “downside wicking below it would be fine as long as price ends the week with a weekly candle close above the EMA.” Short-term technical levels include the 20-day exponential moving average near $79,000 and the 50-day simple moving average close to $74,000.

On-chain data showed recent accumulation has lowered the immediate support floor. Data provider Glassnode reported the cost basis of the 1-week-to-1-month investor cohort at about $76,900, making that cohort the most immediate support. Glassnode identified $86,900 as likely near-term resistance, representing the breakeven point for investors who accumulated during the November 2025–February consolidation period.

Market participants offered mixed views on how the vote would affect price. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the day “big” for the crypto sector and suggested it could mark the start of a stronger cycle. Analyst Sharky predicted any immediate pump would be muted, with larger institutional inflows appearing “90 days later, when institutional money finally has legal clarity.” Trading research group Material Indicators warned passage was “somewhat baked-in to $BTC price” and suggested any rally on passage might be brief and fade.

Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades identified a technical path: a break above $82,000 could fill a CME futures gap near $84,000 and lead to further upside. Traders and institutions also referenced the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin framework passed in July 2025, which coincided with additional gains for Bitcoin as regulatory uncertainty eased.

The CLARITY Act vote and any subsequent legislative steps are likely to be monitored closely by traders and institutions as they adjust market positioning.