Traders Put 82% Odds MicroStrategy Will Sell BTC

Traders on the prediction market Myriad set an 82% probability that MicroStrategy will sell some of its 818,334 bitcoins this year after CEO Michael Saylor told investors he “probably” would sell to “inoculate the market.”

The probability on Myriad rose 69 percentage points over the past week following comments made during MicroStrategy’s first-quarter earnings call.

On the call, Saylor remarked, “We’ll probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market-just to send the message that we did it.”

MicroStrategy president and CEO Phong Le added on the call that the company will sell bitcoin when it is in the company’s and shareholders’ best interests, saying, “We will sell Bitcoin when it’s advantageous to the company. We’re not going to sit back and just say, ‘We’ll never sell the Bitcoin.'”

MicroStrategy holds 818,334 BTC, worth about $66.8 billion and representing roughly 3.9% of the total bitcoin supply.

The company reported a net loss of $12.54 billion for the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by estimated unrealized losses of about $14.46 billion on its bitcoin position.

Bitcoin fell from an October all-time high near $126,080 to around $80,058 in recent sessions, a decline of about 36.5% from the peak. The token was roughly even over the most recent 24 hours and up about 12% over the last 30 days.

Saylor has previously urged holders not to sell; he posted on social media this week, “Buy more Bitcoin than you sell.”

Saylor has also said the company can use derivatives and other options to manage the position and that sales could be used to fund dividends or meet liabilities.

Any sale by MicroStrategy would be monitored closely because of the size of its holdings. The timing, size and structure of any transaction would affect whether the sale primarily serves corporate financing needs or adds to market supply.