Standard Chartered: Bitcoin low; $36M Humanity hack linked to DPRK

Standard Chartered concluded that crypto asset prices have probably reached the low for the current cycle and is looking for three signals to confirm a bottom: public reports of Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases, positive flows into crypto ETFs and continued declines in oil prices. Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, told clients on Friday the bank’s baseline for Bitcoin’s cycle low is $59,000, roughly 53% below its prior peak of $126,000. Bitcoin traded near $63,700 on Sunday.

Strategy chief Michael Saylor posted “Still adding dots” with his familiar dot chart on Sunday, a post many market participants interpret as an indication of new Bitcoin purchases. Standard Chartered lists further buying by Strategy as one of the conditions that would strengthen its view that the market has bottomed.

Blockchain security firm Quantstamp linked a $36 million theft from Humanity Protocol to threat actors with suspected ties to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Quantstamp’s incident response identified a phishing attachment that installed malware on a compromised employee laptop, granting remote access to attackers. The attachment was disguised as a token lockup schedule update allegedly from the South Korean exchange Bithumb. Quantstamp reported the malware carried a South Korean Hancom digital certificate and that the attackers copied MetaMask credentials and private keys belonging to Humanity Protocol director Chong Yee Wai.

Humanity Protocol said it is working with investigators and security firms following the breach. Quantstamp noted the pattern of tooling and infrastructure in the incident matches techniques previously associated with DPRK-linked groups. Researchers have linked DPRK-affiliated actors to a large share of recent crypto thefts, accounting for at least $578 million of roughly $634 million stolen in crypto incidents during April.

Political developments are also being watched as a potential influence on the oil market and risk assets. The U.S. administration stated a memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire with Iran was scheduled for signature on Sunday and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, though Iranian officials said any signing could occur at a later date. The Strait of Hormuz had been subject to a naval blockade that affected about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, a factor cited in recent price moves.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe forecast that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran could coincide with stronger ETF inflows and higher Bitcoin prices. Standard Chartered said it requires alignment of the three indicators before treating the low as confirmed, and market participants will be watching Strategy’s public statements, ETF flow data and oil markets in the coming days. The Humanity Protocol incident highlights the ongoing risk of targeted phishing and credential theft in the crypto sector.