S&P 500 hits record; Bitcoin stalls near $79,500

The S&P 500 rose to an all-time high on Friday. The index tracked an upsloping 20-day exponential moving average at about 6,948 and a relative strength index nearing the overbought zone. Technical upside targets cited were 7,500 and 7,877. A decline below the 20-day EMA could put the index toward the 50-day simple moving average near 6,795.

The U.S. Dollar Index reached its moving averages, and sellers were attempting to push it toward 97.74. A fall below that level would open a path to the 96.21–95.55 zone. Market participants noted that sustaining prices above the moving averages would be needed to increase the odds of a rally to 100.54.

Bitcoin attempted to rise above $79,500 but was rejected and remained supported above the $76,000 breakout level. Short-term moving averages were upsloping and the RSI was in positive territory. A clean break above $80,000 could lift Bitcoin toward $84,000. Traders noted that a drop beneath the 20-day EMA would increase the likelihood of a move to the 50-day simple moving average near $71,820.

Investor Michael Terpin warned that Bitcoin “risks falling to $57,000 in October 2026” based on an observed average drawdown from market-cycle tops and said Bitcoin would need to exceed $100,000 for the bull market to resume. Analyst Matthew Hyland wrote that the larger expected consensus outcome for Bitcoin is “another leg lower by October.” Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested Bitcoin may form “an investable low” in September or October.

On-chain data showed mixed behavior. Analytics firm Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 40,967 BTC since April 10, while wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC accumulated 46 BTC over the same period.

Major altcoins traded in narrow bands. Ether remained above its 20-day EMA near $2,295 and was capped at $2,465; a move above that level was noted as a path toward about $3,050, while a drop below the 20-day EMA would likely keep ETH inside its ascending channel. XRP traded between $1.27 and $1.61, with a 20-day EMA around $1.40 and short-term resistance near $1.51; a close above the downtrend line could open a path to $2.

BNB held near its moving averages and needed to climb above $654 to test $687 and then higher targets at $730 and $790. Solana traded close to its moving averages with resistance at $90.73 and $98; a move above $98 would target $117, while a breakdown below $82.94 would risk a slide to $76. Dogecoin faced selling between $0.10 and $0.11 and could find support at its moving averages; a failure there would place $0.09 in focus.

Smaller tokens showed active levels. Hyperliquid resumed higher after clearing $41.88 but encountered selling in the $43.76–$45.77 band; the 20-day EMA was near $41.25 and the 50-day SMA around $39.50. Cardano remained close to its moving averages with a downtrend line overhead; a decisive close above that line could target $0.32 and $0.37, while rejection would leave $0.22 as downside support.

Traders continued to watch moving averages, RSI readings, analyst forecasts and on-chain flows for short-term signals across equities and cryptocurrency markets.