Senate bans members from trading prediction markets

The Senate on April 30, 2026 adopted an amendment to its Standing Rules that bars sitting senators from entering contracts on event-based prediction markets. The change took effect immediately after a unanimous voice vote.

The amendment to Rule XXXVII explicitly prohibits any senator from buying or selling contracts whose payouts depend on the occurrence or nonoccurrence of a specified event. Alleged violations will be referred to the Senate Ethics Committee for review.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) introduced the measure one week before the vote. Moreno framed the rule as a matter of public trust, saying, “Treating the U.S. Senate as a vehicle for personal financial gain is a fundamental betrayal of the American people.” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) proposed language to preserve routine insurance contracts; the final text includes a narrow exemption to avoid affecting standard insurance and financial planning products.

Lawmakers advanced the rule after several incidents in late April raised concerns about nonpublic information entering liquid online markets. On April 22, a regulated exchange fined three congressional candidates for placing wagers on their own races. On April 23, an Army Special Forces soldier was arrested on allegations he used classified intelligence to win more than $400,000 on a prediction market wager tied to a Venezuelan military operation. Trading volume on platforms offering event contracts rose during the 2026 election cycle.

The ban applies only to the 100 members of the Senate. It does not extend to members of the House, congressional staff or executive-branch officials. The amendment does not create a criminal prohibition; it establishes an internal ethical rule for senators who vote on policies that could affect market outcomes.

Industry firms that operate event-contract platforms have begun restricting access for political figures. Democratic senators are urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to consider industry-wide safeguards against insider trading on these contracts. The Senate action leaves open whether the House or federal regulators will adopt comparable limits.