Saylor: 3.3% Bitcoin Gain Could Fund STRC Dividends

Michael Saylor wrote on X that Strategy Inc.’s bitcoin holdings need to appreciate more than 3.3% annually for capital gains to cover STRC preferred dividends indefinitely. He identified the firm’s “BTC Breakeven ARR” as the metric that measures that minimum annual bitcoin return.

BTC Breakeven ARR is the average yearly bitcoin appreciation required for Strategy’s capital gains to match its preferred dividend obligations without issuing new common shares. Saylor previously placed that threshold near 2.05% before it rose as dividend claims expanded and bitcoin’s price fell. Strategy publishes the Breakeven ARR in real time on its website.

The company sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5 for roughly $216 million to pay preferred dividends, trimming its holdings to about 843,775 BTC. Strategy now faces approximately $1.5 billion in annual dividend payments across five preferred instruments. The Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, known as STRC, is structured to trade near a $100 par value and carries a variable monthly dividend; STRC is the largest preferred stock by market value at more than $8.5 billion.

Strategy’s software segment generated about $477 million in revenue in 2025. That revenue is smaller than the annual preferred claims, a gap some analysts characterize as a cash-flow issue rather than a shortfall in bitcoin holdings. Saylor has presented a numerical approach to the gap, saying modest long-term bitcoin growth can produce capital gains that offset dividend payments. He has also noted that selling roughly 1.4% of the bitcoin treasury per year could fund dividends in a flat-price scenario.

Critics have raised concerns about the preferred-stock structure and its impact on the company’s bitcoin treasury. Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju warned that weaker investor demand for STRC could impair its market. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that scheduling bitcoin sales to meet dividends creates two-way market risk, because anticipated or recurring sales can affect bitcoin prices.

Historical bitcoin returns provide context for both views. Over many multi-year periods the asset has produced double-digit compound annual growth rates, which exceed the 3.3% threshold. At the same time, bitcoin has suffered drawdowns of more than 70% in past cycles. During such declines, Strategy’s dividend obligations remain, which could require asset sales at lower prices.

In a post on X, Saylor wrote: “One of the most misunderstood MSTR metrics is BTC Breakeven ARR. If BTC appreciates faster than 3.3% over time, BTC capital gains can fund STRC dividends indefinitely.” The recent bitcoin sale marked a departure from the company’s long-held “never sell” position on its treasury.