US tops Polymarket political bets despite geoblocking

Blockchain research firm Allium found US-based users account for the largest single national group of political bettors on Polymarket’s global platform by contracts traded and wallet count, despite the platform’s efforts to block US access. The firm noted its country-level figures are directional, based on tagging about 6% of wallets with a country.

Allium reported that restricting access did not stop US participation. “Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” the report stated, and added that demand from US users has moved offshore and outside US oversight.

The analysis found US-tagged wallets showed stronger interest in foreign conflict markets than in election markets. Five of the top 12 markets by notional volume among US-tagged wallets related to the Iran war, while election markets attracted comparatively less US activity. The report wrote, “US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades.”

Independent analysis by Rutgers statistician Harry Crane reached similar conclusions about US participation. Crane estimated roughly 30% of Polymarket’s trading volume came from US-based users and calculated that between May 2025 and April 2026 Americans sent an estimated $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion through the platform. His method linked trades to US activity by examining trade timing and the markets traded.

Polymarket was required to block US customers under a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company also launched a US-regulated product, Polymarket US, in December with a narrower set of markets that includes certain election questions. Researchers report significant US activity continues on Polymarket’s offshore site despite those steps.

Polymarket has taken technical measures to enforce geographic blocks, including efforts to detect and deny connections from some VPN services and IP addresses tied to anonymizing tools. The platform is fully blocked in more than 34 jurisdictions. Spain most recently restricted access while authorities opened an inquiry into whether the company operates without required licensing. Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland are listed as “close only,” permitting users to close positions but not open new ones. Certain regions, including Ontario and parts of Ukraine, are subject to separate access restrictions.

Allium’s findings and Crane’s estimates document continued US-originated trading volume on Polymarket’s global site despite civil enforcement actions and technical access controls.