Kalshi suspends George Santos account after suspicious bets

Kalshi froze George Santos’ account and referred trading activity to the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after he allegedly placed wagers against his own attendance at President Trump’s late-February State of the Union address while publicly saying he planned to attend. Both federal agencies have opened inquiries.

The day before the speech, Santos posted that he would be “in the gallery.” During the address he posted that he was “watching SOTU from an airport tv.” Kalshi identified trades made against his attendance that ran counter to those public posts, suspended the account and sent its review to federal authorities.

People familiar with the trades say Santos profited when the market moved and cleared tens of thousands of dollars. When asked about the referrals, Santos responded, ‘Well, that’s news to me,’ declined to confirm whether he had an account and added, ‘I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.’

Federal prosecutors have recently brought separate cases tied to prediction-market activity, including charges against an engineer accused of using confidential company data for bets and an active-duty service member accused of wagering on events tied to classified information. Congressional investigators have requested records from major prediction exchanges about identity checks and markets linked to foreign conflicts, and the House Oversight Committee has opened a formal inquiry into some platforms.

Legal and market advisers say the facts in the Santos matter differ from classic insider trading scenarios. Yuriy Brisov, a lawyer who advises digital markets, described the pattern as closer to manipulation: ‘Trading on your own conduct is a category that the inherited rulebook never anticipated.’ He said existing laws focus on misuse of confidential information rather than public statements by actors who can influence outcomes.

Kalshi has previously fined and banned a social media employee and a political candidate for wagering on outcomes they could affect and referred those incidents to the CFTC. Exchange officials say such controls are part of their efforts to prevent misuse of markets.

Santos is a former New York congressman who was expelled after revelations about fabrications in his resume and later faced federal charges. He was indicted in 2023 on counts including wire fraud and money laundering, was sentenced to more than seven years in prison, and was released after his sentence was commuted.

Federal investigators will review trading records, communications and platform logs to determine whether the wagers violated criminal statutes or commodities rules. Lawmakers have indicated interest in broader oversight of prediction markets following several recent enforcement actions.