Retail Traders Push Onchain Prediction Volume to $25.7B in March

Bitget Wallet and Polymarket reported $25.7 billion in onchain prediction market trading volume for March, with more than 80% of participants classified as retail users trading under $10,000.

The report’s March figure aligns with onchain tracking from Dune Analytics, which recorded $23.7 billion for the month, up from $1.9 billion a year earlier.

Average active days per user rose from 2.5 to 9.9 over the first quarter, the report found, indicating users are trading more frequently rather than only during headline events.

Sports markets produced $10.1 billion in volume across the quarter. Political markets generated about $5 billion in the same period.

Polymarket operates on the Polygon network and enables onchain bets through smart contracts without intermediaries. Centralized venues such as Kalshi offer outcome markets through traditional exchange structures. The report notes that self-custodial crypto wallets are increasingly used as entry points for retail users.

Polymarket updated its governance framework to address insider trading and market manipulation risks, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has increased engagement with the sector, the report said. Platforms have taken steps to improve transparency and market integrity.

Industry projections cited in the report estimate annual prediction market volumes could reach about $240 billion this year, with some longer-term forecasts reaching into the trillions. The report also notes trading momentum increased following the 2024 U.S. presidential election and has since expanded across sports, politics and crypto-related questions.

The report highlights lower entry-size bets, frequent global events and recent platform governance changes as factors accompanying the rise in retail participation and overall volume.