Prediction Markets Post Record $113.8B in Q2

Prediction markets recorded a quarterly record of $113.8 billion in notional volume in Q2 2026, while spot trading, perpetual futures and stablecoin volumes declined across major exchanges during the quarter.

A crypto industry report shows spot trading on the top 10 centralized exchanges fell to $1.95 trillion in Q2, down 27.9% from $2.7 trillion in Q1. Perpetual futures on centralized exchanges dropped about 10% to $12.7 trillion, and the stablecoin market slipped 1.6% to $305.1 billion.

Prediction market activity peaked in June, when monthly notional volume reached $50.7 billion, a 91.9% increase over the five-month average before June. Sports and political contracts drove growth: Polymarket’s World Cup winner market handled more than $3.3 billion in trading volume, and contracts tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election were among the largest on several platforms. Kalshi held a 58.9% market share in Q2, Polymarket’s share fell to 30.2% from 35.8% in Q1, and a Robinhood-backed platform rose to fourth place.

Centralized exchanges diverged in performance. Binance held a 38.7% share of spot volume in Q2. MEXC’s spot volume fell to $121.2 billion from $275.2 billion in Q1. The top 10 spot decentralized exchanges processed $408.9 billion, down from $556.4 billion in Q1. Uniswap remained the largest DEX with a 41.2% share and saw volume fall 21.4% to $168.5 billion.

Total crypto market capitalization declined 12.6% to about $2.1 trillion during the quarter. April recorded a high number of protocol hacks and exploits affecting decentralized finance platforms.

Regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets increased in Q2. In the United States, disputes continued over whether platforms should be regulated as financial markets or treated as gambling, and legal actions involving Kalshi proceeded into 2026. Authorities in other jurisdictions moved to restrict or block some services, citing concerns about gambling compliance, market integrity and potential insider trading.

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to real-world events rather than trade on cryptocurrency price movements. Notional volume and trading in event-based contracts rose in Q2 while spot, derivatives and stablecoin activity declined.