Polymarket, Kalshi near $2B in World Cup bets

Polymarket and Kalshi recorded nearly $2 billion in trading volume on contracts that pay out if a national team wins the FIFA World Cup, days before the tournament opens on June 11, 2026 with Mexico vs. South Africa.

Most of the activity was in long-term “winner” contracts that settle only if a named team takes the trophy. Markets showed Spain with the shortest odds at about a 16% chance, with France near that level. Portugal and England were the next most backed teams. Contracts for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Cape Verde and Panama were priced as long shots and would pay thousands of times the stake if any of those teams won.

Both platforms launched before the 2022 World Cup. Trading volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi have risen substantially in the run-up to the 2026 tournament compared with their earlier events.

Users on the platforms buy and sell outcome-linked contracts. Trades include small speculative wagers and larger positions from professional or institutional traders. Volume is used by market participants to assess liquidity and interest in specific outcomes.

A survey by fraud-prevention firm SEON of 588 U.S. adults found 19% would use prediction markets to place bets during the tournament, while 29% said they would use traditional sportsbooks. The survey showed prediction markets were preferred over social casino games, crypto betting apps and offshore betting among the options listed.

Polymarket and Kalshi face regulatory scrutiny in several U.S. states. Gambling regulators in Minnesota, New Mexico and Nevada have taken enforcement or classification actions and the firms are involved in litigation and regulatory filings related to whether their contracts meet local definitions of gambling.

Beyond champion contracts, the platforms offer markets tied to other World Cup outcomes. Championship contracts accounted for the largest share of the recent volume. Market prices and volumes can change quickly based on match results, injuries and group-stage developments.

Trading activity on the opening days will provide a running record of how participants reallocate positions as the tournament progresses. Regulators, market participants and the platforms are monitoring volumes and legal developments during the event period.