Polymarket Hires Japan Lead, Seeks Approval by 2030

Polymarket appointed Mike Eidlin, formerly head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter, to lead efforts to secure regulatory approval to operate prediction markets in Japan. The company aims to gain government authorization by 2030.

Polymarket plans to lobby Japanese regulators and lawmakers over the coming years and described Japan as a major market opportunity. The company wrote that it has seen “meaningful organic interest from users” in Japan and across Asia, adding, “We’re always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways.” Company representatives did not immediately provide further comment.

Japan permits gambling only in limited government-authorized forms such as horse racing and public lotteries. Enforcement has tightened in recent years; violations tied to online casino use can carry fines up to about $3,400 and repeat offenders may face prison terms of up to three years.

Polymarket already maintains a Japan-focused account on X with more than 53,000 followers. The company lists Japan among roughly 35 restricted jurisdictions under its country access policy. Some users in blocked countries have accessed the platform using virtual private networks.

Industry data show Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume fell nearly 15% in April, while rival Kalshi recorded an increase of about 13% over the same period. The platform is blocked in about 34 countries and subject to “close-only” restrictions in several others.

Some governments have moved to curb access to prediction markets. Indian authorities have prepared blocking orders against rival firms, and other jurisdictions have taken steps to restrict platforms that accept wagers on political or economic events.

Prediction markets let users buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events; prices typically reflect the market’s assessment of the probability of those outcomes. The format attracts retail traders and institutional observers and draws regulatory scrutiny when contracts concern elections, policy decisions or other sensitive topics.

Polymarket intends to pursue formal authorization in Japan rather than operating outside local law and will continue engagement with regulators and lawmakers toward its 2030 target.