Polymarket Prices 31% Chance Bitcoin Hits $80K in April

As of April 19, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. ET, when bitcoin traded near $74,726, Polymarket’s April price-milestone market assigned a 31% probability to bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April and had recorded $32.3 million in total trading volume.

The $80,000 bracket on Polymarket accounted for about $3.7 million of that volume. Every bracket below $75,000 was effectively priced as certain. Higher brackets showed lower odds: $85,000 at roughly 6% with about $2 million in volume, $90,000 at about 2%, and $100,000 for the month under 1%. On the downside, a drop to $65,000 carried roughly 13% odds with $2.4 million in volume, and a fall to $60,000 was priced near 3% with about $1.7 million backing it.

Polymarket’s end-of-2026 series, which had about $32.2 million in volume, assigned an 81% probability to bitcoin reaching $80,000 before Dec. 31, 2026. The market priced a 56% chance for $90,000 and 37% for $100,000 by year-end. Longer-shot outcomes showed lower probabilities: $250,000 by year-end was near 4% with almost $4.8 million in volume, and $1,000,000 sat close to 2% with just under $1 million in interest. On the downside, the end-of-year series placed a roughly 60% chance on bitcoin revisiting $55,000 and 36% on a move to $45,000. A $15,000 outcome held about 6% odds and had accumulated roughly $4.6 million in volume.

Kalshi’s markets, which settle against the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index using a trimmed mean from a one-minute window, showed different timing odds. Kalshi’s $100,000 market gave bitcoin an 18% chance of crossing that level before July 2026, 30% before October and 41% before year-end; that series had about $5.9 million in volume. Kalshi’s $150,000 market assigned about 4% odds before August and roughly 12% before January 2027, with the wider series at about $32.1 million in volume.

A separate Myriad market framed the outcome as whichever occurs first on Binance spot: bitcoin reaching $84,000 or dropping to $55,000. Using one-minute TradingView candle closes, that market showed a 60.7% probability for the $84,000 outcome and 39.3% for the $55,000 outcome, with roughly $125,000 in volume since early February.

Options market data showed similar probability ranges for key strikes. Call options targeting an $80,000 expiry implied about a one-in-three probability for the near-term outcome and roughly 81% for year-end, while put options at $65,000 and $55,000 implied near 13% and 60% probabilities, respectively.

Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad displayed a range of probabilities and trading volumes across April and year-end milestones, with capital placed on both higher-price and lower-price scenarios.