Trader Peter Brandt pins Bitcoin bear-market low to Oct. 4, 2026

Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, expects Bitcoin’s bear market to bottom on Oct. 4, 2026, and warned the price could fall below $50,000 into the high-$40,000s before that low. At the time of his comments Bitcoin traded near $63,661.

Brandt, who has 51 years of trading experience, reiterated the October date in a recent interview and said he has held the forecast for some time. “I’ll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th. So we’ll see,” he told the interviewer.

He argued current market sentiment is too neutral to mark a bottom and pointed to historical price cycles. “Markets don’t bottom on neutral sentiment. Markets bottom on panic and volume,” he added.

Brandt warned that traders who now argue the market is finished may abandon Bitcoin at the eventual nadir, “throwing in the towel, and saying we’re done with Bitcoin, we’re going on to other assets.”

Pointing to prior bear markets, Brandt noted each major decline has included corrections exceeding 80 percent and said that pattern leaves room for further downside. He estimated Bitcoin could slip into the high-$40,000 range before forming a cycle low, while acknowledging prices might hold near current levels.

On timing and targets, Brandt forecast Bitcoin will not reach its next cycle peak until 2029 and placed that peak between $250,000 and $300,000. He said reaching larger price targets projected for 2030 would require a rapid rise in a short period after that peak.

Brandt described a hypothetical portfolio split, allocating $10,000 evenly between Bitcoin and precious metals. He explained precious metals may be nearer a price bottom while Bitcoin may be nearer a time bottom: “I think precious metals are closer to a bottom price-wise; I think Bitcoin may be closer to a bottom time-wise.” He also expressed skepticism about the sustainability of a full allocation to artificial intelligence-related stocks, adding, “I do not believe that somebody who goes all in on AI stocks right now will be very happy with that investment two, three years from now.”

His timing and price estimates add to a range of market forecasts, with some traders viewing the roughly $60,000 area as a potential cycle low and others expecting further declines. Brandt framed Oct. 4, 2026 as a specific end point for the bear phase rather than a precise price on that date.