Options Price 25% Odds of $84K as Bitcoin Tops $78K

Bitcoin reclaimed $78,000 on Friday while options on Deribit expiring May 29 priced a call with an $84,000 strike at 0.0136 BTC, roughly $1,063. With 27 days until expiry, that price implies about a 25% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $84,000 by May 29, a move of roughly 8% from current levels.

The S&P 500 reached an all-time high the same day. Bitcoin has gained about 15% over the past 30 days.

Put options have traded at a premium over the past month. The 30-day delta skew, which measures the gap between put and call demand and typically ranges from -6% to +6% in balanced markets, has been above that range for roughly a month.

Derivatives markets showed signs of weaker bullish demand in futures. The monthly futures basis rate, which normally trades at a 4% to 8% premium over spot, has softened over the past 30 days. The basis decline coincides with Bitcoin’s roughly 12% year-to-date drop in 2026.

Spot market flows and corporate purchases have been sizable. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.3 billion in net inflows in March and about $2 billion in April, pushing combined net assets above $100 billion.

Public companies added large amounts of Bitcoin in the last 30 days, including 56,235 BTC by MicroStrategy, 5,075 BTC by Metaplanet and 929 BTC by Strive. The combined purchases exceed more than five months of expected future Bitcoin mining supply.

The scale of spot ETF inflows and corporate reserves alters the quantity of coins potentially available from miners and other holders. Market participants will watch ETF flows, company holdings and derivatives prices ahead of the May 29 options expiry to assess how available supply and trading interest evolve.