On-chain Data Suggests Bitcoin Floor at $60,000–$70,000

On-chain data showed about 20% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply last moved on-chain between $60,000 and $70,000 as of Tuesday, based on Checkonchain figures cited by quant analyst Frank Fetter.

The reading derives from Bitcoin’s unrealized price distribution (URPD), which maps where coins last changed addresses and highlights common entry prices for holders.

Fetter wrote that dense cost-basis zones frequently act as support because many investors share similar entry levels, adding, “This is how meaningful floors are put in.” The concentration indicates a large ownership cluster near current prices.

Other on-chain analysts described the pattern as a transfer of coins from higher-cost sellers to buyers at lower prices. Darkfost, an analyst associated with CryptoQuant, called the setup “one of the biggest BTC transfers from weak hands to strong ones.”

A separate metric, Bitcoin’s supply-in-profit percentage, has fallen into what analyst DurdenBTC termed a “capitulation zone.” Similar readings appeared near past cycle lows around $3,200 in 2019, $5,000 in 2020 and $16,000 in 2023; the current level corresponds roughly to $59,000.

Technical indicators show potential for further downside. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading inside a bear-flag pattern that formed after the decline below $60,000. A rejection at the flag’s upper trend line would set a measured target near $53,500 based on the pattern’s height. A daily close above the 20-day exponential moving average, near $66,420, would invalidate the bear-flag target and could point toward the 50-day EMA at about $70,250.

Analysts note that a sustained hold above $60,000 would align price with the concentrated cost basis in the $60,000–$70,000 band. A sustained close below $60,000 would open the path toward the low $50,000s, according to technical patterns.