NYDIG: Senate crypto bill risks stalling if not passed by August

Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, warned in a note Friday that the Senate’s crypto market-structure bill could stall after the midterms unless lawmakers pass it by early August. He described June through early August as the realistic window and called a July 4 target ‘an aspirational benchmark rather than a fixed legislative deadline.’

The bill advanced out of a Senate Banking Committee markup and now heads to the full Senate, where it will need 60 votes to overcome extended debate. Republicans hold a 53-seat majority and require at least seven Democrats for quick passage. Some Democrats have raised concerns that the measure does not do enough to prevent financial crime or sanctions evasion.

Negotiations have centered on stablecoin rules, limits on government officials’ use of crypto, ethics language and enforcement for decentralized finance. Cipolaro warned stalled talks on those issues or scheduling delays could derail the measure and leave markets in ‘permanent jurisdictional ambiguity.’

Congress recesses from late July through early September, then returns to a pre-election period when leadership is unlikely to schedule a contested 60-vote floor fight, he wrote. If the bill misses the June-through-early-August window, Cipolaro identified a post-election lame-duck session as the next probable path — but only if Republicans retain the Senate and Majority Leader John Thune prioritizes the measure over government funding deadlines.

Cipolaro added that if Democrats win control of the chamber in November, the current Republican-backed bill is unlikely to advance in the next Congress beginning in January, creating pressure on negotiators to accept an imperfect bipartisan framework now.

Supporters say passage would provide legal clarity for institutional investors. The text would place Bitcoin under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, a change Cipolaro said would close ‘the last significant regulatory overhang for Bitcoin as an institutional asset class.’

Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott led the committee markup. With a narrow calendar, lingering policy disputes and tight Senate arithmetic, the bill’s path depends on whether negotiators resolve remaining issues and whether leadership schedules a floor vote before the midterm calendar tightens.