Surging oil pressures Ether price, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

Fundstrat co‑founder Tom Lee wrote that rising crude oil prices since the Feb. 28 US‑Israeli war have been a steady selling headwind for Ether. Fundstrat data show crude has gained roughly 66% and that the inverse correlation between oil and ETH is at a record high.

West Texas Intermediate briefly reached about $108 a barrel and Brent about $111 after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that “the clock is ticking” for Iran to make a deal on opening the Strait of Hormuz. Fundstrat’s analysis indicates the oil‑Ether relationship strengthened as energy prices rose.

Ether mostly traded sideways during the period of heightened geopolitical risk, but selling accelerated over the past week, with the token falling nearly 10% to about $2,100 on Monday, roughly 57% below its all‑time high. Lee warned a prolonged U.S.‑Iran conflict would add pressure on ETH performance.

Lee wrote that a fall in oil prices would allow Ether to recover and described the current weakness as “short‑term tactical noise.” He pointed to longer‑term drivers for Ethereum, including tokenization and agentic artificial intelligence. Ethereum holds more than 60% market share of tokenization activity when layer‑2 networks are included, and several large financial firms have launched tokenized funds on the network.

The agentic AI argument rests on the idea that autonomous AI agents unable to access bank accounts would use crypto tokens such as ETH or stablecoins for transactions. Other analysts note oil is one of several pressures on Ether. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at the Bitrue Research Institute, identified ETF outflows, rising exchange reserves and whale selling, broader risk‑off sentiment and ETH’s underperformance versus Bitcoin as additional factors. These forces have combined with rising energy prices amid recent market volatility: investors withdrew funds from crypto exchange‑traded products, some large holders increased on‑exchange balances, and risk‑off moves favored safer assets over cryptocurrencies.

Looking ahead, Lee expects ETH to strengthen through 2026 if oil prices reverse and structural adoption trends continue. Persistent geopolitical tensions that keep oil elevated would extend selling pressure until broader market sentiment improves.