Long-term Bitcoin sales fall to 19-month low; Sept bottom window

On-chain data show long-term Bitcoin holders who bought more than five years ago reduced their 90-day selling average to 962 BTC, the lowest reading since November 2024. The figure is derived from spent transaction outputs (STXO), a metric that tracks coins that have moved on the network.

Analysts who reviewed the CryptoQuant dataset identified three major long-term selling waves over the past two years, with 90-day peaks of about 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025 and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Individual days in those periods recorded much larger outflows, with single-day outputs exceeding 10,000, 30,000 and at times over 142,000 BTC.

Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that the current cycle produced the highest recorded level of long-term holder selling and has since shown a marked pullback. Darkfost noted that the most expensive coins in the tracked cohort were bought at roughly $63,200, a price near recent market levels, which corresponds with reduced selling by those holders.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. reported shifts in profitability and capital by holder type. Adler Jr. wrote that Bitcoin’s adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) fell to about -0.14 from near zero a month earlier, indicating the average holder returned to unrealized losses while BTC traded near $62,500. He added, “STH capital has shrunk by -56%, while LTH capital has barely drawn down. Weak hands are capitulating. Strong hands have not even flinched.” Adler Jr. also noted that aNUPL spent roughly half of the past three months below zero.

A halving-timing approach offers an additional schedule for a possible market low. Analyst LP pointed to a pattern from the previous bear market in which a final capitulation phase began about 826 days after the halving, followed by a major low and a consolidation of roughly 70 to 110 days. For the current cycle the 826-day marker falls on July 6; applying the same post-capitulation range produces a bottoming window in early September, LP observed.

Trader Titan identified downside liquidity levels that could attract market attention. Titan highlighted an untapped quarterly low near $58,900 and an open fair value gap between approximately $49,000 and $58,900, and wrote that leaving the quarterly low untouched through September could concentrate liquidity there and lead to a bottom between the third and fourth quarters.

Analysts noted that the fall in long-term holder selling, the decline in aNUPL and the halving-based timing coincide in the second half of 2026. The reporting here presents on-chain flows, profitability measures and timing models as described by the analysts and traders cited.