Institutions Buy 500% of Daily Bitcoin Supply; BTC Eyeing $96K
Institutions are buying more than five times Bitcoin’s daily mined supply, a pace Charles Edwards projects could lift BTC to about $96,000 by June if sustained.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards posted on Monday that institutional buying has exceeded 500% of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply since the April 2024 halving. Edwards’ calculations show miners have produced about 450 BTC per day while institutional demand has risen faster, with rate-of-change figures near 0.0022% for miner supply and about 0.0139% for institutional buying.
Edwards attributes much of that demand to renewed inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing purchases by MicroStrategy. On-chain flow data cited by Edwards indicate ETFs and MicroStrategy added roughly 70,000 BTC in April, compared with about 13,500 BTC mined in the same month.
Edwards noted prior instances when institutional absorption topped 500% of daily mined supply and reported an average one-month return of about 24% after those episodes. He wrote, “Every time it’s been this high before, price has shot up over the next week,” and added, “The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take us to around $96K.”
On-chain analytics from Glassnode show accumulation beyond large institutions. Entities holding 100–1,000 BTC, labeled “sharks,” added more than 61,000 BTC in the past 30 days. Mid-size holders of 10–100 BTC (“fishes”) and holders of 1–10 BTC (“crabs”) also increased net positions over the same period.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has offered a similar short-term estimate, projecting Bitcoin could reach about $95,000 while citing renewed ETF demand and technical patterns.
Some traders flagged downside risk. Technical trader Bitbull identified a bear-flag formation and outlined a potential correction to $60,000–$62,000 if price moves from the flag’s upper trendline toward the lower trendline. Bitbull added that a breakdown below that lower boundary could push Bitcoin below $50,000.
Market participants say whether institutional and retail buying continues to absorb available supply will be a key factor for near-term price direction.
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