IMF: Dollar stablecoins expand access, can speed currency runs

A new working paper from the International Monetary Fund by economist Brandon Joel Tan finds dollar stablecoins can increase access to U.S. dollar exposure in countries with fixed or tightly managed exchange rates, while also creating a channel that can accelerate runs on the domestic currency when pressure rises.

The paper, titled “Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,” models parallel foreign-exchange markets that develop when official access to dollars is rationed. It concludes stablecoins can serve as an alternative means for residents to obtain dollar exposure when banks or official exchange channels cannot meet demand.

The study explains that widely observed market prices for dollar-linked tokens provide a real-time indication of dollar demand. Those visible prices can act as a signal of scarcity and prompt many people to convert local currency at once during periods of stress. Tan wrote that stablecoins make “dollar-like claims easier to access” and create a “visible, high-frequency price for dollar demand.”

The paper cites recent examples of stablecoin use. On June 9, 2025, some retailers at a Bolivian airport priced goods using a USDT reference while continuing to accept U.S. dollars or bolivianos. In Argentina in 2024, informal networks exchanged pesos for dollar-pegged tokens at rates closer to the unofficial market, offering another route for savers when currency controls restricted formal dollar access.

To limit rapid, panic-driven conversions, the paper recommends short-term measures such as temporary caps on unusually large or fast transactions, enhanced monitoring of large flows, and coordination with payment providers. Over the longer term it advises stronger oversight of stablecoin issuers and intermediaries, liquidity safeguards and assessment of how tokenized claims interact with capital controls and monetary policy.

The Financial Stability Board on March 24 warned dollar stablecoins could expose emerging economies to currency substitution, weaken monetary policy and allow circumvention of capital-flow measures, and urged authorities to monitor sector developments and evaluate liquidity and operational risks. The IMF paper does not call for blanket bans; it notes both increased access to dollars and the potential for faster currency substitution when token prices signal scarcity.