Grayscale warns CLARITY Act delay could hit bitcoin

Grayscale Research said on June 26 that failure to advance the CLARITY Act in the Senate could prompt digital asset treasuries that hold bitcoin to deleverage, adding selling pressure that may push bitcoin prices lower. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill 15-9, but the measure still needs 60 votes in the full Senate, coordination with the Senate Agriculture Committee and reconciliation with the House version. Galaxy Research lowered its odds of passage in 2026 to about 50-50, citing no scheduled floor vote, no motion to proceed and no unified committee draft. Supporters point to a narrow window for floor action from July 13 to Aug. 7 before the August recess.

Grayscale flagged the potential for forced selling if the bill does not move. Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, wrote that Strategy and other digital asset treasury firms holding leveraged bitcoin could reduce holdings further if market conditions tighten: “In a downside scenario, the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, Strategy and other DATs deleverage further, and the Fed is forced to raise rates due to persistent inflation.” He added: “If downside risks materialize, we could see bitcoin fall moderately further.”

The firm also pointed to a changing interest-rate outlook as an additional constraint on crypto markets. Markets shifted after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve, a pick viewed as relatively hawkish compared with an earlier candidate, and inflation remains elevated. Grayscale said these factors raise the chance the Fed would raise rather than cut rates this year, tightening liquidity for risk assets. The research note also listed concerns about quantum-computing security as another headwind for crypto markets.

Grayscale contrasted the current cycle with earlier ones, noting past bitcoin drawdowns have been about 80% from peak to trough and stating it expects any decline this cycle to be less severe because the bull market is more muted and institutional demand is more persistent. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming warned that failure to pass comprehensive crypto legislation could push major reform to 2030, and the advocacy group Stand With Crypto urged Senate leaders to schedule a vote before election-related priorities tighten the calendar.

Negotiations remain unresolved over ethics rules, anti-money-laundering provisions and differences between Senate committees, leaving the bill’s path uncertain. Traders and institutional holders are monitoring whether Congress will act in the short window available or whether weaker sentiment and additional deleveraging will put further downward pressure on bitcoin.