Grayscale: Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Near $65K-$70K

Grayscale Research posted on April 21 on X that bitcoin may have bottomed near $65,000-$70,000 after on-chain measures showed recent buyers returned to breakeven around $74,000 as the spot price approached $78,000. The firm cited alignment between spot levels and recent investors’ cost bases.

On April 21 bitcoin traded around $75,577, recovering from an early-February selloff that briefly pushed the price into the low $60,000s. Recent candlestick patterns showed consolidation just below resistance near $78,000, with buyers defending higher lows.

Grayscale shared chart data from Glassnode measuring the realized price for coins transferred within one to three months. That realized-price measure rose through much of 2025, peaked above $110,000 in late 2025 and then fell into 2026 to roughly $74,000. The convergence of realized price and spot price reduced unrealized losses for recent buyers, Grayscale said.

The firm wrote on X: “Grayscale Research believes BTC’s blockchain data could signal a durable market bottom has occurred.” It added that “$BTC has rallied nearly 20% since February 5th. Recent buyers are back at breakeven around ~$74K.” Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, commented that further price gains would move more recent buyers into positive PnL and could mark the first phase of a bull market.

Grayscale used on-chain cost-basis metrics to track recent investor positioning. The realized price for short-held coins reflects the prices at which those coins last moved; when that metric falls to the current market price after a recovery, fewer recent participants hold unrealized losses.

The firm noted prices remain below October highs and said additional appreciation would increase the number of recent buyers in profit.