Goldman Cuts Year-End Gold Target to $4,900

Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce to $4,900 in a report published June 19, 2026. The bank’s commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven revised the prior target of $5,400 as they reassess the timing of U.S. rate cuts.

The analysts expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates unchanged through 2026 and delay reductions to March or December 2027. They wrote: “Our gold price views remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk.”

Gold typically competes with yield-bearing assets. Because gold pays no interest, higher policy rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion versus bonds and cash, reducing immediate support for prices while rates stay elevated.

U.S. inflation remained above the Fed’s preferred range, with the Consumer Price Index rising 4.2% year over year in May. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, noted that lower inflation and easier liquidity would be needed before investors broadly shift back into risk assets.

Market prices reflect those risks. Gold has fallen more than 22% from its January record high of $5,327 per ounce and traded close to $4,000, about $135 below that threshold. Bitcoin has declined about 28.3% since January. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added to market pressure.

Futures pricing and market tools show investors placing significant odds on rates remaining at the current 3.5%–3.75% range through the remainder of 2026, supporting Goldman Sachs’ later timing for cuts.

Goldman’s $4,900 target remains above near-term spot levels but is lower than the bank’s earlier $5,400 estimate. The analysts say prices face downside risk while financial conditions remain tight and could improve if inflation cools and policy shifts.

Background: Lower central-bank rates tend to reduce yields on bonds and increase liquidity, which can make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Persistent inflation readings and expectations of delayed Fed easing have reduced near-term prospects for that environment this year.