Gold, silver rally as ratio tightens to 66.9

Gold climbed to $4,175 on July 3 and was trading at $4,187 on July 4 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, while silver rose about 7% to above $62. The gold-to-silver ratio tightened to about 66.9 to 1 after the U.S. jobs report for June.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, below economist forecasts near 110,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% and private payroll growth slowed. The CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell from around 66% to roughly 53–54% in the days after the report.

Lower odds of additional Fed tightening coincided with a softer dollar and falling real yields. Traders reduced expectations for further policy hikes, a factor that supported demand for gold and silver, which do not pay interest.

From June 30 to July 3, gold rose from about $4,012 per ounce to roughly $4,175, an increase near 2.1%, marking its first weekly gain in five weeks based on data covering June 27 through July 4. Silver climbed from approximately $58.30 to more than $62.40 over the same period, gaining about 6% to 7% and outpacing gold.

Silver’s stronger rebound reflected both its role as a monetary metal and its use in industry. Ongoing demand for silver in solar panels, electronics and electric vehicles has supported consumption even after prices weakened earlier in the second quarter.

OCBC strategists described their outlook on gold as “cautiously constructive” following the jobs data. Gold economist Peter Schiff linked the June 30 dip below $4,000 to traders moving from a weak yen into dollars and argued that gold’s performance is best measured against the dollar over the long term.

Gold remains about 22% below its early 2026 peak above $5,300, and silver has given back a larger share of its January highs. Analysts identify resistance for gold in the $4,200–$4,300 range and a ceiling for silver near $65. Market participants are watching upcoming inflation readings, retail sales and further employment reports, as well as central bank purchases and developments in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, as factors that could affect prices in the coming weeks.