Four-Year Bitcoin Trend Points to $76,400; ‘Not Broken’

Analysts report Bitcoin is trading compressed below a four-year adoption trend that places a notional fair price near $76,400. They say price action is following familiar multi-year cycles and remains under that long-term line.

Analyst David Eng wrote on X that Bitcoin runs on two timeframes: a 400-day simple moving average and a four-year trend line. Eng described the 400-day SMA as a shorter-term cycle support that has not seen daily candle closes below it in this cycle or the previous one. The four-year line smooths short-term noise and highlights adoption-driven movement. Eng’s chart estimates a fair price near $76,400 and shows a separate Power Law price level near $135,000. He wrote: “$BTC is not broken. It is compressed below its adoption structure.”

Analyst Rekt Capital estimates the current downtrend is about 71% complete and is focused on the 50-month exponential moving average, which he places near $63,900. Rekt Capital wrote that a June monthly close around $62,000 would confirm a monthly breakdown from the 50-month EMA. He added that a green July could flip the 50-month EMA into resistance and that an August reversal could cancel July and resume downside continuation.

The 400-day SMA is used by these analysts as a medium-term support reference during bullish phases. The four-year trend line filters short-term swings and aligns price movement with longer adoption cycles. The 50-month EMA is treated as a structural monthly level: a monthly close below it can change its role from support to resistance.

The analysts base their scenarios on moving-average behavior and historical cycle comparisons. They say monthly closes will be important in determining whether the current downtrend continues or reverses.

These are technical analyses and not investment advice.