Fairlead’s Stockton: Bitcoin may have already hit long-term low

Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton said bitcoin may have reached a long-term low after the coin registered a measurable long-term oversold reading on two of the firm’s preferred indicators. Stockton raised the assessment in mid-August 2026, as bitcoin traded near $63,000 and market sentiment sat in the low-30s on the Fear and Greed Index.

Stockton told clients the technical damage bitcoin suffered in recent months may be nearing exhaustion. She noted momentum on a long-term basis has begun to tick higher even while price remains under pressure. Bitcoin hit an intraday low near $62,470 and was trading below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages at the time.

Her analysis uses support levels, Fibonacci retracements and the Ichimoku cloud to map likely reversal zones and areas where demand could reappear. Fibonacci retracements are a charting method that identifies potential support and resistance based on a prior price swing, while the Ichimoku cloud is a multi-line indicator that helps locate trend direction and support bands.

Stockton extended the same major-low view to ether, saying the second-largest token “may have already seen that major low.” She pointed out that smaller tokens often bottom and top in step with bitcoin, so simultaneous durable lows in bitcoin and ether would be a confirmatory signal for technical analysts.

In her client note Stockton wrote, “We are seeing those signs of long-term downside exhaustion already,” and added that “momentum on a long-term basis is beginning to tick higher.” She also compared the setup to recent price action in gold, and said bitcoin’s deeper and longer drawdown gives it a different technical profile than gold.

Stockton cautioned that long-term signals can take weeks or months to resolve into sustained trend changes. Short-term charts can still move sideways or retest prior lows even after a long-term oversold reading appears, so volatility and intermittent weakness remain possible.

Fairlead Strategies is a technical research firm that applies chart tools to market analysis. The firm noted that, historically, simultaneous long-term oversold readings and momentum upticks on multiple indicators have sometimes preceded significant market turning points rather than only brief rebounds.