CryptoQuant: Bitcoin may slide after hitting 200-day MA

CryptoQuant warned that Bitcoin could slip into a downtrend after the coin reached its 200-day moving average near $82,400. The firm wrote that the level was reached following a six-week rally that began in early April from about $66,000 and noted the 200-day moving average acted as major resistance in the 2022 bear market when the price resumed its decline after testing it in March 2022.

The analytics firm flagged rising unrealized profit margins as a potential source of selling pressure. On May 5 unrealized profits among traders reached 17.7 percent, the highest level since June of last year. Daily realized profits also rose to their largest level since early December, with traders cashing out roughly 14,600 Bitcoin on May 4, about $1.2 billion at the time. CryptoQuant reported that spikes of similar size during past bear market rallies have often preceded local price tops.

Bitcoin fell about 2.3 percent in the most recent 24-hour period to roughly $79,300 after the U.S. Labor Department reported producer prices rose 1.4 percent in April, the largest monthly gain in four years. CryptoQuant noted that growing institutional adoption has made Bitcoin more sensitive to U.S. economic data.

If the price declines, CryptoQuant identified a key support band around $70,000, which the firm described as the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted. The report said that level has acted as a resistance-turned-support band in past bear markets and represents the average cost basis of short-term traders, where unrealized profit margins compress toward zero and selling incentives can ease.

Some analysts offered different forecasts. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe wrote on X that Bitcoin could move quickly to $90,000 if the U.S. Senate advances the CLARITY Act. Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at the crypto fund Maelstrom, predicted that the Iran war and AI spending could lift Bitcoin to $126,000, citing geopolitical tensions and global monetary policy as factors that could drive demand for crypto.

The 200-day moving average is widely watched as an indicator of medium-term trend direction. CryptoQuant’s report lays out the recent price test and profit-taking data as factors investors can use when assessing whether the recent rally extends or price returns to longer-established support levels.