Hayes: Iran war, AI spending could lift Bitcoin to $126,000

Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, wrote on Substack on Tuesday that the conflict in Iran and an escalating US‑China race to dominate artificial intelligence could lead to increased fiat currency creation and push Bitcoin to $126,000 this year.

Hayes argued both governments treat AI as a national security priority and are prepared to expand fiscal and monetary support for large technology and infrastructure projects. He identified expanded bank lending and direct money creation to finance capital expenditures on AI and electrification as channels that would increase the supply of fiat currencies.

Describing war as inflationary, Hayes said the Iran conflict will accelerate defense and domestic spending and lower demand for US Treasurys and some publicly traded equities. He asserted that monetary expansion combined with heavy capital spending would create liquidity that could flow into digital assets.

On Bitcoin specifically, Hayes wrote that the coin hit a bottom near $60,000 earlier this year and that further money creation makes a return to $126,000 “a foregone conclusion.” He predicted the rally could intensify after Bitcoin breaks through $90,000, when option sellers whose strikes are breached may rush to cover positions and push prices higher. Earlier, at Bitcoin Vegas 2026 in Las Vegas he said attendees that Bitcoin would reach $125,000 by the end of the year.

Hayes pointed to recent market moves to support his view. Bitcoin traded roughly between $79,500 and $82,500 over the past seven days and was near $81,000 on Wednesday, about 31% above the Feb. 6 low of $62,822. The broader crypto market reached about $4.28 trillion in market value in October before cooling later in the year. Gold gained roughly 2% from early February to the present.

Hayes published the comments on Substack and identified the Iran conflict and the global AI spending race as factors he expects to influence monetary policy and financial conditions this year.