Dalio: Bitcoin’s tech ties and small size weaken safe‑haven case

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio argued on a recent podcast and in posts on X that bitcoin’s price action and market structure weaken its claim as a safe‑haven asset.

On May 11 Dalio wrote that bitcoin’s correlation with equities, especially technology shares, means investors often sell bitcoin to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios. He also raised privacy and control concerns, writing that bitcoin transactions can be monitored and that central banks would be reluctant to hold it as a reserve asset.

Dalio cited market moves this year as evidence. Gold has risen nearly 9% year to date, according to his post, after a late‑January run that briefly pushed year‑to‑date gains higher before a pullback and a renewed rise into May. Dalio noted that bitcoin surged early in the year, climbed more than 10% in the first two weeks, then fell through late January and early February, dipping below $60,000 at points and ending the first quarter down more than 20%; by mid‑May he said bitcoin remained roughly 7% below its start‑of‑year level.

He described bitcoin as “small and controllable,” arguing that its market size makes it easier to influence than gold, which he characterized as more ubiquitous and systemically important.

Michael Saylor, chairman of MicroStrategy, replied on X that bitcoin’s transparency supports its use as global collateral and cited his firm’s results since 2020. “Since we adopted the Bitcoin Standard on Aug. 10, 2020, bitcoin has outperformed gold with a higher Sharpe ratio,” Saylor wrote.

Industry commentator Samson Mow rejected Dalio’s privacy concerns and urged him to improve his understanding of bitcoin’s privacy features. Other users on social media criticized Dalio’s assessment.

Dalio referenced the recent Middle East conflict when discussing correlation patterns, saying bitcoin’s link with equities appeared weaker during the early days of the conflict but reemerged with technology stocks by late March.

The comments and replies reflect ongoing disagreement between some mainstream investors and bitcoin proponents over bitcoin’s volatility, market concentration, correlation with growth assets and suitability for institutional reserves.