CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Cycle Top May Still Be Ahead

CryptoQuant’s 365-day PnL Index is still trending lower, and the analytics firm says that pattern is consistent with a market that has not yet reached its cycle peak. Bitcoin fell about 50% from an October 2025 peak near $126,000 to roughly $62,600.

The 365-day PnL Index combines several onchain measures, including market value to realized value (MVRV), net unrealized profit and loss, and the ratio of long-term to short-term holders. CryptoQuant compares the index to its 365-day moving average to produce a bull-bear cycle indicator; that gauge flipped to a bullish reading on May 12, 2026, the firm’s first such signal since March 2023.

Some market participants view the October high and the subsequent price decline as evidence that the cycle top has passed and the market is in a post-peak decline. CryptoQuant interprets the lower, falling PnL reading as an accumulation phase in which many holders are in unrealized loss rather than as the final stage of a cycle.

Trading activity has shown some large-holder buying since the June low. One large wallet purchased $98.9 million of bitcoin at a June 5 low of $59,734 and realized about $3.5 million in profit within two days as prices recovered. Bitcoin has remained above $60,000 since and was trading near $62,600 at the time of the report.

CryptoQuant and other analysts note that onchain indicators are probabilistic and not forecasts. The firm pointed to a prior false bullish flip in 2022 as a reminder that a green cycle signal does not guarantee a sustained uptrend. Broader factors such as tariff developments and Federal Reserve policy have also influenced price momentum this year, sometimes moving markets independently of onchain measures.