CryptoQuant: April Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Futures
CryptoQuant warns April’s roughly 20% Bitcoin rally from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures as spot demand declined, a setup that could precede a multimonth decline.
CryptoQuant warned in a Thursday report that April’s roughly 20% Bitcoin rally, which lifted the price from about $66,000 to a $79,000 peak, was driven mainly by growth in perpetual futures even as spot demand fell. Bitcoin traded near $77,000 at the time of the report.
Perpetual futures are derivative contracts that let traders hold leveraged positions without an expiry date. CryptoQuant’s on-chain metrics showed rising activity in those contracts while purchases of actual coins on exchanges and custodial services declined.
The report described the gap between rising prices and falling spot demand as “one of the clearest on-chain signals that price gains are speculative rather than structural.” CryptoQuant added that Bitcoin’s pullback from $79,000 fits patterns seen when futures flows lead a rally.
CryptoQuant’s composite Bull Score, which measures market and network activity on a 100-point scale, dropped from 50 to 40 during April. The firm said a return to 40 corresponds with conditions that historically preceded continued price weakness.
The report drew a parallel to early 2022, when a surge in futures demand together with falling spot purchases preceded a sustained downtrend. CryptoQuant said similar dynamics could expose the market to extended downside while Bitcoin remains in what the firm calls a bear market regime.
Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan offered a different view, arguing that corporate Bitcoin treasury buying was the single biggest driver of the recent rally. Bitwise also pointed to ETF inflows of about $3.8 billion since March 1 and renewed purchases by long-term holders as contributors to price gains.
Analysts note that derivatives flows, ETF inflows and buying by long-term holders can all affect price. CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis indicated the marginal buyer in April was more active in futures markets than in spot markets.
CryptoQuant and other market observers say historically, periods when derivatives activity outpaced spot accumulation have been followed by higher volatility and, in some cases, extended pullbacks.
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