CryptoQuant: April Bitcoin rally driven by futures
CryptoQuant found April’s 20% Bitcoin rise to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures while on-chain spot buying stayed negative, pushing its Bull Score to 40.
CryptoQuant’s weekly report, released Thursday, found April’s 20% Bitcoin rally from roughly $66,000 to a $79,000 peak was powered by a rise in perpetual futures demand while estimated on-chain spot buying stayed negative.
The firm’s apparent demand metric, which measures the 30-day change in estimated on-chain spot buying activity, never turned positive during the price advance and remained below zero throughout April.
Perpetual futures let traders take leveraged directional bets on price without taking delivery of coins. Spot demand tracks buyers who move and hold Bitcoin on-chain. The report notes futures-led rallies can reverse quickly if leveraged positions are unwound.
CryptoQuant compared the configuration in April to early 2022, when rising perpetual futures demand and falling spot apparent demand preceded a multi-month price collapse that reduced Bitcoin by about 70% from its peak.
The firm’s Bull Score, a composite index of on-chain and market indicators scored from 0 to 100, fell from roughly 50 in mid-April to 40 by month-end, moving below the neutral threshold into what the firm describes as bearish territory.
Bitcoin had pulled back to about $76,400 at the time of the report. CryptoQuant did not predict a full market reversal and said a sustained move back to $79,000 would require on-chain spot buying to turn positive.
Users on the Myriad prediction market assigned more than a 70% probability that Bitcoin’s next move will be a rise to $84,000 rather than a drop to $55,000.
The report lists the metrics used, including apparent demand and the Bull Score, and outlines how futures positioning and on-chain flows diverged during April’s price advance.
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