Cryptoquant: April Bitcoin rally driven by futures, not spot

Seoul-based analytics firm Cryptoquant reported that Bitcoin’s April rally from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures demand while estimated on‑chain spot buying stayed in contraction. The firm’s composite Bull Score fell from 50 in mid‑April to 40 by month’s end.

The report uses an apparent demand metric that tracks the 30‑day change in estimated on‑chain spot buying. That metric remained negative for all of April even as Bitcoin’s price rose roughly 20 percent. At the same time, Cryptoquant recorded expanding demand in perpetual futures, indicating greater participation by leveraged derivatives traders during the price advance.

Analysts at the firm divided the rally into phases and found the same pattern in each phase: rising perpetual futures demand paired with negative spot apparent demand. The report states that spot buying contracted while futures activity increased, rather than spot buyers lagging and then catching up.

Cryptoquant’s Bull Score is a composite index scaled 0–100 that the company builds from several on‑chain and market indicators. Readings above 50 indicate bullish conditions and readings below 50 indicate bearish conditions. The firm described a score of 40 as “getting bearish.”

The report drew a historical parallel to the start of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand expanded in isolation and spot apparent demand stayed in contraction before a multi‑month price decline. Cryptoquant noted the current demand signature matches that earlier profile but stopped short of forecasting a repeat of 2022.

Price action showed volatility after the April high: Bitcoin fell from $79,000 to about $75,000 following the peak and traded just above $78,000 as of May 2 after another attempt to reach $80,000. The report also referenced geopolitical events tied to the U.S. and Iran and said comments by former President Donald Trump that the conflict was over provided an additional lift to bitcoin and equity markets on one occasion.

The findings rest on an on‑chain decomposition that separates spot apparent demand from derivatives inflows. Perpetual futures are leveraged contracts that let traders take larger positions without holding the underlying coins; higher activity in those contracts can move prices without a corresponding increase in coins held in wallets or exchanges.

Cryptoquant advised that unless the apparent demand metric flips from negative to positive, any renewed advance toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the on‑chain support the firm associates with a sustained breakout. The report emphasized the consistency of its demand decomposition across cycles as the basis for treating the current pattern as a warning sign rather than definitive proof of future price movement.