Carlson Calls Markets ‘Fake’ as Oil, Bitcoin, Stocks Diverge

Tucker Carlson told his audience public markets were ‘fake,’ citing more than 60 days of fighting linked to Operation Epic Fury, oil below $100 a barrel, Bitcoin trading near $82,000 after about $2 billion of ETF inflows in April, and record S&P 500 levels.

Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, with strikes on Iranian leadership and infrastructure. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks and actions that disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil. A fragile ceasefire held briefly in early April, but ship strikes and intermittent violence continued into May.

Markets moved unevenly. The S&P 500 fell roughly 10% in the first weeks of the conflict, then recovered to close above 7,000 in mid-April and trade near 7,389 by May 8. The Nasdaq 100 posted a 13-day winning streak, its longest in over a decade, and the Dow approached 50,000. Brent crude spiked above $116 per barrel on May 5 when threats around Hormuz intensified, then eased back below $100 on signs of de-escalation. Gold rose into the $4,500–$4,700 range at points but did not sustain a continuous safe-haven rally.

Bitcoin moved into the low $80,000s and drew roughly $2 billion in ETF inflows in April, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold at times. Some investors treated the cryptocurrency as a digital hedge. Carlson argued the gaps between traditional and crypto assets indicate markets are being manipulated rather than reflecting ordinary supply and demand. He added that gold and oil remained ‘far lower than you would rationally expect them to stay after 60 days of terrible news’ and described public markets as not ‘open and free and equal for everyone to participate in.’

Market participants offered other explanations. JPMorgan pointed to corporate earnings strength, noting about 83% of S&P 500 companies recently beat estimates. Barclays analyst Stefano Pascale suggested markets were trading on the assumption that the worst of the conflict is behind investors. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde described the tendency to treat conditions as ‘business as usual’ as strange.

Other observers identified persistent inflation concerns, a relatively strong dollar and uncertainty over the timing of central bank rate cuts as factors that can limit traditional safe-haven flows into oil and gold. At the same time, retail demand and institutional flows into ETFs and crypto products have changed liquidity patterns, amplifying moves in some assets while muting others.

Market participants expect the outlook to depend on how the conflict unfolds, central bank policy decisions and the direction of investor flows.