Bloomberg Strategist: Crypto May Need 50% Drop to Buy

On April 26, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote on X that the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index could fall another 50% from its 2025 high near 4,000 before a clearer buying opportunity appears. He wrote, “There’s going to be a great time to buy cryptos — it just may be after another 50% decline in the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.”

McGlone shared a chart showing the BGCI just above 2,000 on April 23, the 2025 peak near 4,000 and a lower reference around 1,000 as a possible corrective bottom. The chart compares BGCI moves with longer-term trends in equities and the index’s own past levels.

He pointed to performance over roughly five years, noting the BGCI has been essentially flat while the S&P 500 nearly doubled in that span. McGlone estimated the index shows about four times the volatility of the S&P 500 and described a pattern in which crypto gains have failed to hold, a trend he labeled “same-chart-syndrome.”

McGlone identified three main pressures on digital assets: elevated volatility, periods of tighter correlation with equities, and a large increase in token supply since bitcoin launched in 2009. He wrote, “Oversupplied, overhyped, and overpriced is our view of the crypto market,” and said abundant supply has limited sustained price momentum.

On bitcoin, McGlone noted the 2025 surge above $100,000 and suggested it might represent a peak if the pressures persist. He wrote that a BGCI level near 1,000 could serve as a “low-price cure.” In earlier commentary he warned, “My bias is the crypto bust may be just beginning. There was one in 2009 — bitcoin — and now there are millions, most tracking little of substance yet still valued in the billions.”

He referenced the start of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a recent development for market structure but said the post-ETF period has not removed the risks he described. McGlone added that bitcoin could revisit levels around $10,000 if beta declines.

The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index tracks a range of digital assets and has shown larger swings than broad equity benchmarks. Market participants watch BGCI moves as a broad indicator of crypto market health and potential entry points.